Lower respiratory tract infection admissions and deaths among children under 5 years in public sector facilities in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2019 - 2021).

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the implementation of strict public health and social measures (PHSMs) (including mobility restrictions, social distancing, mask-wearing and hand hygiene), limitations on non-essential healthcare services, and public fear of COVID-19 infection, all of which potentially affected transmission and healthcare use for other diseases such as lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs). OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in LRTI hospital admissions and in-facility mortality in children aged <5 years in the Western Cape Province during the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of LRTI admissions and in-facility deaths from January 2019 to November 2021. We estimated changes in rates and trends of LRTI admissions during the pandemic compared with pre-pandemic period using interrupted time series analysis, adjusting for key characteristics. RESULTS: There were 36 277 children admitted for LRTIs during the study period, of whom 58% were male and 51% were aged 28 days - 1 year. COVID-19 restrictions were associated with a 13% step reduction in LRTI admissions compared with the pre-COVID-19 period (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI)) 0.80 - 0.94). The average LRTI admission trend increased on average by 2% per month during the pandemic (IRR 1.02, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.04). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 surges and their associated measures were linked to declining LRTI admissions and in-facility deaths, likely driven by a combination of reduced infectious disease transmission and reduced use of healthcare services, with effects diminishing over time. These findings may inform future pandemic response policies.

Comparison of paediatric infectious disease deaths in public sector health facilities using different data sources in the Western Cape, South Africa (2007-2021).

BACKGROUND: Routinely collected population-wide health data are often used to understand mortality trends including child mortality, as these data are often available more readily or quickly and for lower geographic levels than population-wide mortality data. However, understanding the completeness and accuracy of routine health data sources is essential for their appropriate interpretation and use. This study aims to assess the accuracy of diagnostic coding for public sector in-facility childhood (age < 5 years) infectious disease deaths (lower respiratory tract infections [LRTI], diarrhoea, meningitis, and tuberculous meningitis [TBM]) in routine hospital information systems (RHIS) through comparison with causes of death identified in a child death audit system (Child Healthcare Problem Identification Programme [Child PIP]) and the vital registration system (Death Notification [DN] Surveillance) in the Western Cape, South Africa and to calculate admission mortality rates (number of deaths in admitted patients per 1000 live births) using the best available data from all sources. METHODS: The three data sources: RHIS, Child PIP, and DN Surveillance are integrated and linked by the Western Cape Provincial Health Data Centre using a unique patient identifier. We calculated the deduplicated total number of infectious disease deaths and estimated admission mortality rates using all three data sources. We determined the completeness of Child PIP and DN Surveillance in identifying deaths recorded in RHIS and the level of agreement for causes of death between data sources. RESULTS: Completeness of recorded in-facility infectious disease deaths in Child PIP (23/05/2007-08/02/2021) and DN Surveillance (2010-2013) was 70% and 69% respectively. The greatest agreement in infectious causes of death were for diarrhoea and LRTI: 92% and 84% respectively between RHIS and Child PIP, and 98% and 83% respectively between RHIS and DN Surveillance. In-facility infectious disease admission mortality rates decreased significantly for the province: 1.60 (95% CI: 1.37-1.85) to 0.73 (95% CI: 0.56-0.93) deaths per 1000 live births from 2007 to 2020. CONCLUSION: RHIS had accurate causes of death amongst children dying from infectious diseases, particularly for diarrhoea and LRTI, with declining in-facility admission mortality rates over time. We recommend integrating data sources to ensure the most accurate assessment of child deaths.

The association of waiting times from diagnosis to surgery with survival in women with localised breast cancer in England.

BACKGROUND: Survival from breast cancer in the United Kingdom is lower than in other developed countries. It is unclear to what extent waiting times for curative surgery affect survival. METHODS: Using national databases for England (cancer registries, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics), we identified 53 689 women with localised breast cancer, aged ≥ 15 years, diagnosed between 1996 and 2009, who had surgical resection with curative intent within 62 days of diagnosis. We used relative survival and excess risk modelling to determine associations between waiting times and 5-year survival. RESULTS: The median diagnosis to curative surgery waiting time among breast cancer patients was 22 days (interquartile range (IQR): 15-30). Relative survival was similar among women waiting between 25 and 38 days (RS: 93.5%; 95% CI: 92.8-94.2%), <25 days (RS: 93.0%; 95% CI: 92.5-93.4%) and between 39 and 62 days (RS: 92.1%; 95% CI: 90.8-93.4%). There was little evidence of an increase in excess mortality with longer waiting times (excess hazard ratio (EHR): 1.06; 95% CI: 0.88-1.27 comparing waiting times 39-62 with 25-38 days). Excess mortality was associated with age (EHR 65-74 vs 15-44 year olds: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.07-1.41) and deprivation (EHR most vs least deprived: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.09-1.49), but waiting times did not explain these differences. CONCLUSION: Within 62 days of diagnosis, decreasing waiting times from diagnosis to surgery had little impact on survival from localised breast cancer.

Features of cancer in teenagers and young adults in primary care: a population-based nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Teenagers and young adults (TYA, 15-24 years) diagnosed with cancer report repeated visits to primary care before referral. We investigated associations of symptoms and consultation frequency in primary care with TYA cancers. METHODS: Population-based, case-control study was carried out using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). A total of 1064 TYA diagnosed with cancer were matched to 13,206 controls. Symptoms independently associated with specific cancers were identified. Likelihood ratios (LRs) and positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated. RESULTS: In the 3 months before diagnosis, 397 (42.9%) cases consulted > or =4 times vs 593(11.5%) controls (odds ratio (OR): 12.1; 95% CI: 9.7, 15.1), yielding a PPV for any cancer of 0.018%. The LR of lymphoma with a head/neck mass was 434 (95% CI: 60, 3158), with a PPV of 0.5%. Corresponding figures in other cancers included - LR of leukaemia with lymphadenopathy (any site): 29 (95% CI: 8, 112), PPV 0.015%; LR of CNS tumour with seizure: 56 (95% CI: 19, 163), PPV 0.024%; and LR of sarcoma with lump/mass/swelling: 79 (95% CI: 24, 264), PPV 0.042%. CONCLUSION: Teenagers and young adults with cancer consulted more frequently than controls in the 3 months before diagnosis. Primary care features of cancer match secondary care reports, but were of very low risk; nonetheless, some features increased the likelihood of cancer substantially and should be taken seriously when assessing TYA.

Changes in survival by ethnicity of patients with cancer between 1992-1996 and 2002-2006: is the discrepancy decreasing?

BACKGROUND: Patients of minority race/ethnicity have lower survival after diagnosis with most types of cancer. Little data are available concerning changes in disparity over time. Here, we examine changes in survival by race/ethnicity of patients with common cancers in two recent time periods. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used modeled period analysis to determine relative survival (RS) for non-Hispanic white (nHw), African-American (AA), and Hispanic patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database diagnosed with common solid and hematological malignancies. RESULTS: Five-year RS improved overall and for nHw for each tumor examined, ranging from + 2% points (pancreatic cancer) to + 16.4% points [non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, (NHL)]. Greater improvement was observed for AA and Hispanics than nHw in breast and prostate cancer and NHL. Less improvement was observed for AA and Hispanics than for nHw for lung and pancreatic cancer. No statistically significant improvement was observed for AA and Hispanics with myeloma or acute leukemia. Survival disparities ranging from 0.5% points (myeloma) to 13.1% points (breast) between nHw and AA remained. CONCLUSIONS: Progress has been made in decreasing disparities in survival between nHw and minorities in breast cancer, prostate cancer, and NHL. Little progress has been made in reducing disparities for the other studied cancers.

Features of childhood cancer in primary care: a population-based nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the risk of cancer in children with alert symptoms identified in current UK guidance, or with increased consultation frequency in primary care. METHODS: A population-based, nested case-control study used data from the General Practice Research Database. In all, 1267 children age 0-14 years diagnosed with childhood cancer were matched to 15,318 controls. Likelihood ratios and positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated to assess risk. RESULTS: Alert symptoms recorded in the 12 and 3 months before diagnosis were present in 33.7% and 27.0% of cases vs 5.4% and 1.4% of controls, respectively. The PPV of having cancer for any alert symptom in the 3 months before diagnosis was 0.55 per 1000 children. Cases consulted more frequently particularly in the 3 months before diagnosis (86% cases vs 41% controls). Of these, 36% of cases and 9% of controls had consulted 4 times or more. The PPV for cancer in a child consulting 4 times or more in 3 months was 0.13 per 1000 children. CONCLUSION: Alert symptoms and frequent consultations are associated with childhood cancer. However, individual symptoms and consultation patterns have very low PPVs for cancer in primary care (e.g., of 10,000 children with a recorded alert symptom, approximately 6 would be diagnosed with cancer within 3 months).

Geographic and ethnic differences in childhood leukaemia and lymphoma survival: comparisons of Philippine residents, Asian Americans and Caucasians in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Childhood cancer survival estimates from developing nations are rare. METHODS: Using the US SEER and the Manila and Rizal Cancer Registry databases in the Philippines, 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia and lymphoma in 2001-2005 among Asian Americans were compared with both Filipinos and Caucasians in the United States. Estimates for patients in the United States in earlier time periods were compared with that of Philippine residents to estimate delay in achievements of comparable levels of survival. RESULTS: Childhood leukaemia and lymphoma relative survival was much lower in Filipinos living in the Philippines (32.9 and 47.7%) than in Asian Americans (80.1 and 90.5%) and Caucasians (81.9 and 87%). Achievement of comparable survival rates of Philippine residents lagged behind by 20 to >30 years compared with patients in the United States. CONCLUSIONS: The large differences in survival estimates of US populations and Philippine residents highlight the deficiencies of paediatric cancer care delivery in the Philippines. The long survival lag underlines the need for major improvements in access to diagnostic and treatment facilities.

Cumulative incidence trends of selected cancer sites in a Philippine population from 1983 to 2002: a joinpoint analysis.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated incidence trends in the Philippines. METHODS: From the databases of the Manila Cancer Registry, cumulative cancer incidence rates were determined for the five most common cancers for both sexes combined. Using joinpoint analysis, incidence trends for 1983-2002 were estimated. RESULTS: Among females, increasing trends were found for breast, 5% annual change, lung (0.5%) and colorectal (1.5%) cancers. Decreasing trends were found for cancers of the liver (-1.2%) and cervix (-1.9%). Among males, increasing trends were found for lung cancer (0.5%), whereas liver cancer rates have been decreasing (-1.0%). Colorectal cancer rates fluctuated. CONCLUSION: Certain sites showed declining incidence trends, but incidence trends for lifestyle-related cancers continue to rise. The prevention of infection-related cancers should also receive priority, particularly by vaccination programmes.

Cancer survival discrepancies in developed and developing countries: comparisons between the Philippines and the United States.

Despite the availability of population-based cancer survival data from the developed and developing countries, comparisons remain very few. Such comparisons are important to assess the magnitude of survival discrepancies and to disentangle the impact of ethnic background and health care access on cancer survival. Using the SEER 13 database and databases from the Manila and Rizal Cancer Registries in the Philippines, a 5-year relative survival for 9 common cancers in 1998-2002 of Filipino-American cancer patients were compared with both cancer patients from the Philippines, having the same ethnicity, and Caucasians in the United States, being exposed to a similar societal environment and the same health care system. Survival estimates were much higher for the Filipino-Americans than the Philippine resident population, with particularly large differences (more than 20-30% units) for cancers with good prognosis if diagnosed and treated early (colorectal, breast and cervix), or those with expensive treatment regimens (leukaemias). Filipino-Americans and Caucasians showed very similar survival for all cancer sites except stomach cancer (30.7 vs 23.2%) and leukaemias (37.8 vs 48.4%). The very large differences in the survival estimates of Filipino-Americans and the Philippine resident population highlight the importance of the access to and utilisation of diagnostic and therapeutic facilities in developing countries. Survival differences in stomach cancer and leukaemia between Filipino-Americans and Caucasians in the United States most likely reflect biological factors rather than the differences in access to health care.